Abstract: This article introduces a method of assessing the capital needs of megaprojects in the domain of energy, in the presence of significant uncertainty, and the method is applied for studying two projects of Small Modular Reactors (SMR) in Poland. The working hypothesis is that uncertainties relative to those projects make them prone to adopting an opportunistic strategy, where business structures accumulate and hold significant amounts of cash without clear immediate purpose. The hypothesis is being verified by simulating the business structure of hypothetical entities, supposed to own and manage the productive nuclear assets. Simulation is done by emulating the business structures of incumbent entities, both those founding the two projects studied, and those serving as benchmarks in the same industry. Emulation is done both case by case, and by Monte Carlo sampling. Empirical results of the simulation suggest that significant cash holdings can appear in those projects, if and to the extent that the real business structures created therein emulate firms such as NuScale Power (partner and technology provider in one of the projects studied), i.e. firms with a mission to prepare the deployment of SMR rather than actually conduct it. Monte Carlo sampling, which sets a central financial scenario, seems to contradict the working hypothesis.
Key words: Small Modular Reactors, business structure, capital base, energy, megaproject
