BTiP 2026, nr 1 – Artykuł 9



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The transformation of the European economic environment under the impact of the war in Ukraine: An analytical assessment of key challenges and future development trajectories

Iryna Kravets | Sozialprojekte Niederrhein, Germany
ORCID 0000-0001-5919-6560

Valentyna Yakobchuk | Polissia National University, Ukraine
ORCID 0000-0003-2147-7994

„Bezpieczeństwo. Teoria i Praktyka”, 1/2026, s. 147-164
https://doi.org/10.31749/2451-0718-btip-2026-1-009
PDF: English

The transformation of the European economic environment under the impact of the war in Ukraine: An analytical assessment of key challenges and future development trajectories

Abstract: This paper analyzes the transformation of the European economic environment under the impact of the Russian–Ukrainian war between 2014 and 2025, demonstrating that the war represents not a cyclical crisis but a systemic exogenous shock to the European Union’s economic system. The study examines key macroeconomic and socio-economic effects, including the 2022 energy shock, inflation, economic uncertainty, and labour market adjustments related to migration flows. The results reveal an asymmetric impact across EU member states and increasing risks of internal fragmentation. The findings indicate an accelerated shift of the EU towards a geoeconomic development model based on resilience, strategic autonomy and the integration of economic and security policies.
Key words: systemic shock, geoeconomic transformation, European Union economy, economic policy uncertainty, energy security transition, strategic autonomy, war-induced structural change, European transformation under stress